The General Election Turmoil and the Polls

Having spent a lot of time over the last year performing as a mental magician in Nottingham, I have met a lot of people recently.  I'll drive to and from gigs and I'll often listen to the radio as I travel.

As the recent general election in Britain loomed, one thing was certain.  This was going to be yet another hung parliament.  Every pundit agreed on that.  There were poll leads for one party or the other very early on, but as it came down to the wire, everyone agreed that it was going to be a tie with up to a month of wrangling and jockeying for position before a government would be formed.

And then, rather extraordinarily for everyone who hadn't read my blog, the Conservatives crushed Labour and won an outright majority.

Why do I think people who read my blog wouldn't have been shocked by this news?  Simply because I've talked extensively in the past about the polls and how thoroughly unreliable they are.

These polls were recently discussed in an interesting article, which I'll leave you with - and I encourage you to search through my blog and find my posts on polls:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11695816/Why-did-the-polls-get-it-wrong-at-the-general-election-Because-they-lied.html

Best,

Atlas

Road Rage - A Life Hack From A Mind Reader

I've seen countless road rage videos pop up on various online news outlets.  Without fail, some fool-in-a-hurry ends up bobbing and weaving dangerously through traffic, sometimes causing accidents, sometimes ending up in confrontations with people who have been endangered by the thoughtless stupidity of the buffoon behind the wheel.

Having been a driver for over twenty years now, I am rarely surprised that these videos tend to do well.  All of us have at one time or another been frustrated by the inane actions of these oblivious maniacs, and the appeal of watching a video in which they instantly receive their comeuppance is tantalizing.

How many of us, doing the speed limit, have watched in frustration as a vehicle cuts out from immediately behind ours and then subsequently haphazardly bobs and weaves, speeding dangerously through traffic, only to end up two or three stop lights later being only one or two car lengths ahead of us?

What is the point of this lunacy?  

What do these drivers gain?  

Very little.

Studies have shown that in normal traffic, a driver who speeds and weaves through traffic gains something like 40 seconds overall.

That's it.

There is also a human element to the problem.  These people gain very little in the way of time, but they cause a great deal in the way of negative emotions.  In the same way that people dislike seeing someone cut into a queue ahead of them, people who are obeying the rules of the road become outraged when they see someone arbitrarily break the etiquette that both makes us civilized and keeps us safe.

In a fit of pique, they chase these people down and begin confrontations in which they inevitably further upset themselves - largely because they've abandoned their civilized roots and find themselves becoming as barbarous as the person they despised.

You've heard the phrase 'Never argue with an idiot - they'll drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.'  That's what happens:

You get up next to the guy in the car and begin to ask him what his 'deal' is.  He bristles and asks you what your 'deal' is.  You try to explain your 'deal', only to discover that the guy in the car didn't really care what your 'deal' was, and he wasn't asking to be polite either.  Stronger and stronger language is used, and either the light goes green and the bad driving recommences - this time on the parts of both parties (infuriating the drivers behind you) - or someone gets out of their car.  If this happens, then things really get bad and the offended driver now realizes that this meathead he was chastising believes he should solve this argument not with logic and reason, but with brute force.

Road rage, huh?  You just can't win.

So, having seen a number of pretentiously labelled 'Life Hacks' online, I've decided to share one of my own.  My method of dealing with these bad drivers.

When considering bad drivers, let's look at the facts:

• These people are in a hurry and so value their time above yours and safety in general.
• When you confront them, you are likely to take simmering resentment and turn it into boiling fury.
• Typically either belligerent in nature or generally aloof to your concerns, they will not see the error of their ways and you will not get an apology from them.
• Their inherent volatility suggests that the situation is likely to escalate beyond your control.

With these facts in mind, what is needed is a solution which is both subtle and elegant, and which (solely to be ironic) violates a small measure of another aspect of the broader implied social contract that they've just broken.  

So what do we do?  We use this broadly implied social contract to their disadvantage, and take advantage of the fact that as humans, we generally expect others to be honest with us.

My 'Life Hack' is this (use at your own peril and discretion, I take no responsibility for what subsequently happens) :

Wait until you have a chance to pull up next to these people - don't follow them, it will usually happen naturally on its own.  Roll down your window, and with a smile and wave, get their attention and ask them to roll down theirs.  Look solicitous and concerned for them.  And when they've responded and you have the chance to address them, simply say 'I'm sorry to tell you this, but your car is dropping tons of radiator fluid'.  They will check their instruments, become worried, and thank you for telling them.  The light then changes and you drive away while they pull over.

Consider this: 

• There is no bitter recrimination that leads to an acrimonious dispute.  
• There is no arguing that leads to an even greater sense of resentment on your part.
• The dangerous driver - keen on gaining time - now loses it as he pulls over to examine his vehicle.
• The dangerous driver also has a shift of expectations as regards his schedule - a moment ago, he was trying to get somewhere quickly, but now, those plans are in the bin because his vehicle has failed him.  This adjustment of attitude will help him subsequently see his schedule with more flexibility.
• The driver is now worried about the costs of fixing the vehicle.
• The driver will be relieved that the vehicle is okay and will consider the advice of the person who warned him an honest mistake.  I mean, why would anyone pull them over and tell them a random lie - it must have been some other car they saw leaking fluid.
• You will be long gone, and out of the way of a potential confrontation.

So there we have it!  

My 'Life Hack' for road rage.  Now, I don't condone road raging in the slightest.  But I know that whether I approve of it or not, it will still happen and terrible things will come as a result.  

If you must do it, at least do it in a way that shows class, style, and sophistication - and avoids a dangerous confrontation. 

Better yet, learn to take a breath and let things go.  

Best,

Atlas

  

Atlas Brookings Nottingham Magician and Mind Reader

That's right, I've completed the international move and am now finally starting to feel a bit more settled - and that means I have time to post on the old blog once more!

It has been a strange transition, moving to the UK was not an easy feat.  Things are very different here, but overall, that is not a bad thing.  Over the last year or so, we've moved house, and I've started performing all over the UK.  One thing that I find a bit odd is that while I perform feats of mind reading, I have to advertise myself as a magician in Nottingham and the surrounding areas (Derbyshire, Lincolnshire, Yorkshire, etc.) as people just know they are looking for entertainment and never think to Google a mind reader.

That fact has made me think a bit about HOW people tend to think.  Mind reading is a bit of a unique performance area and as such it rarely occurs to people seeking entertainment.  They love it once they've experienced it, but most people don't set out searching for it.

They tend to stick with things they know.

This phenomenon is seen all over people's lives - three routes may take you to the same place, but you tend to only drive the one.  A menu displaying varied and succulent dishes can be presented at the restaurant, but we seek only the dish we know we like.

And people are the same when around other people.  We play it safe - we all know that the nail that sticks up gets hammered down and so we accept 'groupthink' rather than plan our own paths.  Social psychologists have long theorized that humans as a species were not successful until they formed groups.  According to this theory, groups helped to ensure the safety and survival of the individual, and thus, on an instinctive level, most people tend to feel the safest when they follow the group.

This is a big reason why politicians seek out celebrity endorsements as the 'Halo Effect' of the celebrity is seen to transfer to them.  Indeed, politicians also constantly tubthump over polls that are favorable to them and their situation:  If they can steer you away from your own questions and instead guide the conversation toward how others are voting, then, due to social psychology, the odds are better than 50-50 that you will vote with the group.

As an American abroad, I have no vote in politics here in the UK.  But I watch it with fascination, partially because it is so different to what I am used to.  Recently, Scotland voted to remain a part of the UK.  The group that wanted independence from the United Kingdom was called the SNP, or Scottish Nationalist Party.

In the run up to the referendum, the SNP based the economic welfare of the new independent nation of Scotland on the oil industry and their projections for their economy were created upon the basis that oil would trade for $112 per barrel.  The SNP lost the referendum, and only four months later, Saudia Arabia's oil production decisions have forced the price of oil down below $50 a barrel.

Interested to see what the SNP had to say about this (the North Sea Oil Industry is now begging the government for help), I took to Twitter to have a look at Nicola Sturgeon's (the new head of the SNP) posts.

I could see no acknowledgement on her part that the SNP had got their projections so wildly wrong.  Instead, I saw numerous 'Halo Effect' posts regarding celebrities alongside posts telling people how well the SNP was doing in the polls.  Here are a few screen grabs:

Now, I want to make clear that I'm not picking on Nicola Sturgeon or the SNP, but my point is this: four months ago, they were insistent that Scotland was better off outside the UK, and made projections and promises to an electorate that, if the vote had gone the other way, could have crippled an entire country.  Real people losing jobs, losing homes, facing desperation, hunger and plight.

Disaster.

A critical thinker might subsequently question the credibility of this group of politicians.

But they don't want to talk about how they got it so wrong - and only FOUR months ago too. That's exactly why they are doing all they can at the moment to shut down your critical faculties by telling you what the polls say the group is going to do.

It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Now, as I said, I'm not particularly anti-SNP, I'm anti-groupthink and anti-manipulation - which is why politicians seem to so often crop up in this blog (in fact, next week, we'll look at a recent episode from the Conservative party).

I guess my point is that groupthink is a concept that is outmoded.  Humans are now the dominant species on the planet, and this need to follow the group is anachronistic and has led to some of the greatest atrocities in history.

People like the Dalai Lama, Martin Luther King, Jr. and Ghandi said 'NO' to groupthink and challenged the status quo.

Critical thinking builds the future.  It sees through falsehood, self-serving agendas, and manipulation.

It gives you freedom.

Best,

Atlas

Forewarned, But Not Necessarily Forearmed

My friends, let me begin by apologizing for not posting for the last few weeks.  I've released another book in the intervening weeks and was pushed to meet that deadline.  In addition to this, the main water line to our house broke underneath the concrete slab and we've spent the last few days moving everything out and repairing the damage.  It was ugly, but I am beginning to find more time.

Now, anyone who has been following this blog has noticed that over the last few weeks, we've addressed and examined how the words a person chooses to employ can effect what others believe and perceive.

I've found a video that I think illustrates this point perfectly.  I don't necessary have an opinion on the lecturer's content, though I find him engaging and think he puts his case admirably. 

What I'd particularly like to call your attention to occurs at the following timestamps on the video.

Begin at 1:53 into the video and watch until 2:56 - you will see that the lecturer presents a challenge to his audience.  

If you then skip forward to 18:15 and watch until 19:33, you will be able to take the test he intimates that he will administer.

I'd just like to ask that you will do me a small favor - once you've taken the test (and if you've found the link to this blog post through Facebook) please click like on the link so that I have some idea how many of you failed the test.  

I'll report back next week on my findings, as well as break down what happened and why.

And now, here is the video:

Best,

Atlas

More.

Most people never get to a place in their lives where they think about saving for their retirement.

Part of the reason for this is that people are never really sure how much money they will need for themselves in their old age and so they find it difficult to know exactly how much they should try and save. People also naturally feel like there is more time to build enough savings than there really is.

Due to a lack of savings, some people wonder if they will ever be able to retire.

Take a moment and think about this.

Are you still thinking?

I bet you were thinking about yourself and how the above statements applied to you!

In fact, I'd bet you started thinking about your own retirement situation as early as the first sentence of this post.

Why?

It is because of the words that I chose to use. I showed you last week that words mattered. This week, I thought I'd show you another way in which the words we use make a difference.

When someone communicates a message that is unspecific, a listener's mind tends to clarify the message FOR the speaker. It does this by making assumptions about the generalized, non-specific portions of the message that has been expressed – and it tends to do that from the personal perspective.

Let's look again at the first sentence of this post. When the term “most people” was used, your brain quietly thought “HEY! I'm most people! This might apply to me.”

Then when it encountered the idea of “a place in their lives”, that was also sufficiently vague and your mind began to contemplate that idea in a context of your personal situation. From there on out, every subsequent sentence was sufficiently vague that your mind filled in the blanks in a way that the ideas were about you exclusively.

And yet, I never specifically said a word about you or your situation.

I've just demonstrated another simple way of controlling a person's thoughts, but doing so in a way that seems quite innocuous and harmless. And it uses only words.

Sales and marketing gurus know this technique and use it all the time. And so do journalists and politicians.

In fact, this technique can make urgent messages for those stubborn people in our lives palatable, resulting in real and meaningful change.

Imagine that I was a friend of yours and I wanted to give you some important warnings about your need to save for your future. If I'd directly said to you:

“Look my friend, I am concerned that you won't have enough money for your retirement because you aren't making it a priority, you aren't saving any money, and I don't think you ever will until it is too close to too late for you. Then, by that time, you'll never be able to retire.”

The above is essentially the same message, but because it was about you and it came from an external source, it is very likely to be rejected. It won't pass the defensive structure of self-perception erected over the years by your conscious mind. You'd dismiss me entirely.

The very best way (and trust me, I have EXTENSIVE knowledge of this) to get someone to do or not do something is to create the illusion for them that their decision in the matter was entirely independent both in conception and execution.

So, how is this done?

By the use of nonspecific, general terms. Be confident that if you want a message to be personalized by an audience, you must master the art of sounding precise while the opposite is, in fact, true.

For example, if I were trying to sell you an alarm system, I would be unspecific in the following way:

“Countless lives have been lost due to preventable emergencies – there are a lot of threats out there and in society today, the smart ones protect themselves.”

It sounds specific, doesn't it? But in all reality, I have given no real data, I haven't clarified what I mean by the word 'threat' (instead, your mind is busy conjuring up what you consider a threat and feeling anxious about those terrible fantasies) and I imply that this alarm system is in the homes of everyone who is 'smart' – a demographic that we'd all like to belong to.

Now, note – I have not said a single word about you or your personal situation. But you are now terrified for yourself and your family and you also consider yourself to be smart, all of which means that you'll be wanting to buy this alarm system from me in the next few minutes. Especially if my pitch continues to employ these non-specific nouns and verbs.

The best sales pitch is one that is personalized, and the best way to personalize a message is to let you do it for me.

I could go on, but I think the point has been made.

Watch the sales pitches made to you by others, and, if you need to really communicate something important to a loved one...be careful of the words you choose.

Best,

Atlas

P.S.  I wanted to call this post "You're So Vain", but I couldn't because then you would have thought the post was about you...from the start and would have defeated what I was trying to demonstrate.  So, if you've read this far, rename the post for me in your mind!

Tell The Truth, But Tell It Slant...

Indulge me. 

Please take a moment and read the sentence below.  I'll even put it in bold for you, so that it stands out.

The President arrived today and was greeted by the jubilant crowd, who chanted loudly and waved signs while the police struggled to maintain order.

Before you continue on, can you please take a moment to picture the scene?  Imagine the faces in the crowd.  Imagine the demeanor and body language of the president.  Imagine what is written on the signs held up among the throngs of people.  What are they chanting?

Take a minute to construct the scene in your mind.  

What did you see?  What were the people saying?  How did they look and behave?

Most likely, you envisioned a very happy set of people and felt that sense of happiness - regardless of any political leanings that you may entertain.  In addition to this, you also most likely imagined the president looking triumphant and showing signs of enjoying the occasion.

You may even have felt something akin to patriotism.

Now, read the sentence below:

The president arrived today and was greeted by the crowd, who chanted loudly and waved signs while the police struggled to maintain order.

Take a moment and envision this scene.  How is it different from the first?

Most likely, you imagined the crowd to be tense.  You probably sensed trouble brewing, but were uncertain as to why.  Did you even see different factions of people arguing within the crowd?

And finally, please read this sentence and imagine the scene:

The president arrived today and was greeted by the unruly crowd, who chanted loudly and waved signs while the police struggled to maintain order.

You will, no doubt, have created a scene in your mind in which the president was greeted by contempt and anger.

You will also have noticed that the three unique mental images that you created changed dramatically even though the sentence you read underwent very minor changes through each subsequent iteration.   In fact, the majority of each sentence was repeated word-for-word.

I'm trying to demonstrate here the power of words and to illustrate that their choice has a tremendous impact on what you feel and think.

Look again at the first sentence:  the word "jubilant" was employed when describing the crowd.  One word.  And that word made you feel that the crowd was overwhelmingly happy and proud of their leader - so much so, that the police could hardly contain them in their enthusiasm.

But the word "jubilant" is absent in the second sentence.  Gone. 

Now the piece is ambiguous and uncertain, and the reader is left to try to infer the mood of the crowd.  In situations like these, we tend to think the worst - especially as the police (defenders of the peace) seem to have their hands full.

The third sentence substitutes the word "unruly" for the word "jubilant", and the mental image is left in no doubt as to the fact that the president has received a very ugly reception.

I can hear you now:  "Yes Atlas - we take your point...words are important...Why does any of this matter?"

Well, two reasons - one of which is relatively trivial, and the other that is hugely important.

The first reason is that in my profession, I use words to influence your choices and decisions and I get to look amazing for it.

The second is far more important than the first, and that is that others use this power as well - though not (as I do) to entertain - but to tell you what to think.

Consider the three sentences again, only this time, imagine that they form a part of an article that you are reading in the newspaper.  Each form of the sentence colors how you feel about the situation described, yet each seems innocent enough on its own.  In every situation, you not only read the "news", but you are very subtly told what to think.

In fact, a closer look at the sentences will tell you how the reporter who wrote them feels about the president.  In the first sentence, the word "president" was capitalized to convey a respect of office.  Each of the subsequent sentence variations printed the word in lowercase letters, which helped the reader to interpret the sentence as desired. 

Again, why is this important?  Because any situation in which you form an opinion is decidedly crucial as it shapes your outlook and interaction with the rest of the world.

Think of it this way:

Imagine that you are a general on a battlefield and a scout returns with a report on the enemy positions.  You will formulate your plan of action based upon that data.  But what if that scout is an enemy spy?  Or lazy?  Or corrupt and seeking an outcome for his own ends?  To err here may mean certain disaster.  Yet, how can you tell whether to trust this scout?

There are a number of ways to determine if the information you are given is trustworthy.  The foremost is the consistency of the source.  If you trust this scout and they have reliably reported back in the past, you can likely trust them in future - though history repeatedly notes that using the past to forecast the future is fraught with peril.  A better way is to use your brain and consider what you have been told.  Scan any communication and look for colorful adjectives and then analyze them and the meaning they convey.  If they were removed, how would the piece look?  Then look for similar communications from other authors and examine their use of language. 

You will learn a lot about the individual biases and slant put on different topics.

If you are listening to the radio, you can hear it as well - even from sources that you would expect to be unbiased.

I listened to one public radio station and heard them describe a labor dispute between an employee union and a corporation.  While reporting the situation, the corporation was described as "impersonal" and the term "Goliath" was also used.  Whether the intention was there or not, careful wording within the piece let the listener know who they should support in this industrial struggle.

I'll now change my question from "Why is this important?" to "Does it matter to you?" 

Your own answer will vary, but I hope that it does, and that this post helps you to rediscover the importance of critical thinking within your life.

Best,

Atlas

Stop Copying Me!

Do you remember when you were a kid, copying whatever the other person said?  

I do.

Inevitably, as you studiously repeated everything that your victim said, they would finally become exasperated and say something like "I am an idiot".  At which point, the game would end and you would reply "Yup.  I agree with that!" and then proceed to scamper toward safer harbors.

It is interesting to me that while verbally copying someone is perceived as a depraved form of torture, parroting their posture and body language has the effect of creating a sense of trust within that person, engendering a subconscious belief that the two of you have established a strong rapport.

The act of copying these actions is called "Mirroring", and the science behind it...will probably bore you.  

In a somewhat confusing nutshell, when the person in front of you is engaged in an action that you just engaged in, your brain finds them more likable, as they are subtly telling you that they are very like you.    The brain then reasons that "yourself" generally makes you feel safe and comfortable - after all, you are a safe person for yourself to be around!  Therefore if this other guy acts like you, he must be safe too!

These mirroring displays can be extremely helpful in turning uncomfortable situations (especially introductions with those in authority) into productive relationships.

Please don't get me wrong - if you intend to mirror a person's actions, it must be infrequent and subtle, with a delay between the action mirrored and its actual occurrence...otherwise, it turns into a bit of pantomime that can have unpleasant results.

In addition, you should try to ensure that your actions take place on the same side as your interlocutor. For instance, if you are facing someone and they take a drink from the cup in their left hand, you would pause a moment and then take a drink with the cup in your right hand.

It really is a simple way to send the message that you are safe, likable, and understand them better than they would have previously thought.

What is really fun is watching for it in others.  The next time you are out and about in society, pay attention to people.  You will probably note that those couples that seem to be getting along very well are engaged in mirroring to some extent.  What will challenge you is trying to determine if one of the people in the pair is mirroring on purpose.

Best,

Atlas